Placebo
The luck test for Hyperliquid
—
Trial № 1 · top 500 leaderboard accounts + top 100 vaults · 90 days of fills

Did they trade well, or did the market move?

Placebo replays every trader's own trades at random times. Same coins, same direction, same number of decisions. If the real record can't beat its own placebo, the profit came from the market's direction, not from skill.

—Addresses tested
—Beat their placebo
—p < 0.05 (chance: 5%)
—Timing worse than random
01Decisions

Every opening fill, summed per coin per hour, is one decision. We score its 24-hour forward return.

02Placebo

The whole timeline is shifted to 1,000 random offsets. Coins, direction, count and spacing stay; only when changes.

03Verdict

The p-value is the share of clones that did as well. Benjamini–Hochberg at q = 0.10 across every address tested.

Method fixed in advance: PREREGISTRATION.md Scores on HyperEVM: PlaceboRegistry 0xd540…a14a Hourly resolution · 24 h horizon · exits not scored Lens: PlaceboLens 0xe1d7…7607